One of the Atlantic Ocean’s Key Systems is Dangerously Weakening: Central Europe May Also Feel Its Effects

By Anette Schwarz

headline image: by roxanne-desgagnes on unsplash

The Atlantic Ocean’s most important circulation system could be weakening significantly faster than climate models previously indicated. A recent international study published in the journal Science Advances (Portmann et al., 2026) highlights that the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) could slow down by up to 50% by the end of the century. This weakening exceeds the average of previous climate forecasts by nearly 60%, suggesting that the system has moved much closer to a critical, irreversible tipping point than scientists had previously assumed.

“We are not talking about a distant environmental problem, but a process that is already directly affecting human health and social stability,” warns climatology professor László Makra.

For a long time, humanity viewed climate change as a slow, distant threat: melting ice caps or rising sea levels. However, modern climatology now paints a much more disturbing picture. The change will not begin in the future; it is already reshaping the fundamental conditions of human life.

“Global climate change is just the tip of the iceberg. The real problem is the transformation of the entire environmental system,” says Professor Makra. “While public discourse is still primarily focused on emission numbers and political debates, the consequences are already manifesting in the human body: in respiratory diseases, allergic conditions, and the burden on the immune system.”

The Air Has Changed Within a Single Generation

In Central Europe, the warming climate not only prolongs the pollen season but also significantly increases its intensity. Today, Hungary is one of the most severely affected countries in Europe: approximately one-fifth of the population suffers from pollen allergies, and a remarkably high number of them are sensitive to ragweed and its pollen.

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Professor Laszlo Makra

“In 1966, not a single grain of ragweed pollen was found in the first pollen samples taken in Szeged. Today, this same region is one of the most heavily burdened areas in the country,” the researcher points out, reflecting on domestic data.

The speed of this change is a warning in itself. According to scientific forecasts, the number of people affected by ragweed allergies in Europe could drastically increase in the coming decades. Meanwhile, the warmer climate also favors the spread of disease-transmitting invasive species, such as the Asian tiger mosquito and certain tick species. The risk of West Nile fever and dengue fever appearing in Central Europe is no longer a merely theoretical issue.

According to Professor Makra, the root of the problem remains the same: “Humans themselves are part of the environment. If we pollute our environment, we are ultimately destroying our own health and living conditions.”

The 1-Degree Celsius Illusion

In debates about climate change, the true meaning of a single degree Celsius rise in the global average temperature is often lost. The number seems small, but the economic and social consequences are not.

“In Central Europe, even a one-degree change in average temperature can significantly alter agricultural conditions. Heatwaves become more frequent, precipitation distribution becomes more extreme, and the cultivation boundaries for certain agricultural crops could shift by up to a hundred kilometers,” the climatologist explains, outlining the local impacts. Recent research also warns that the economic costs of the global warming trend could be much higher than previously estimated.

The AMOC: Europe’s Invisible Life Insurance

The greatest concern today is no longer just the mere fact of warming, but the possibility that certain elements of the climate system could reach so-called tipping points. This conveyor-belt-like system—to which the Gulf Stream is also connected—transports a massive amount of heat towards Europe, guaranteeing the continent’s relatively mild climate.

image: RedAndr, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

The problem is that a growing body of direct measurement data and modeling now points to a sudden slowdown:

• University of Miami and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) researchers have shown, based on nearly twenty years of direct observations, that a persistent, structural slowdown is occurring in the western Atlantic Ocean.
• Utrecht University researchers have identified early physical signals indicating that the system is dangerously approaching a critical, unstable state.
• Copenhagen researchers’ simulations warn that the probability of a rapid, drastic rearrangement could significantly increase by the middle of the century.

The gravity of the situation is underscored by the fact that 44 leading climate scientists recently urged policymakers in an open letter to treat the risks of the AMOC much more seriously than they currently do.

What Could Happen to Europe?

A slowdown in the AMOC does not mean that a new ice age will descend upon Europe overnight. However, researchers agree that a significant weakening of the system would have chaotic regional consequences: global precipitation zones could shift entirely, the frequency of extreme weather fluctuations could radically increase, and droughts, as well as sudden, radical cold snaps, could become much more intense.

“If the high-density, high-salinity water entering the North Atlantic region mixes with the freshwater from Arctic melting, it can weaken the circulation. The consequences of this will be immediately felt in Europe’s weather and agriculture,” explains Professor Makra.

Researchers are particularly concerned about the vulnerability of energy systems. Extreme weather events, low river water levels, or sudden freezes place severe pressure on power plant infrastructure at a time when energy demand dramatically increases. The complexity of the situation is illustrated by the fact that some research groups are already modeling highly radical geoengineering scenarios—including artificial interventions attempting to directly stabilize the ocean circulation system.

The Question is No Longer Theoretical

For a long time, the debate about climate change was primarily about the future. However, according to the current state of science, these processes are already taking place around us. The question is no longer whether the climate is changing, but rather how quickly societies can adapt to a more unstable world.

“Science does not produce prophecies; it indicates risks,” László Makra concludes. “And when the risks are of this magnitude, it is the responsibility of societies to react in time.”

Nature will adapt. The question is rather whether human civilization will be capable of doing the same.

By Anette Schwarz

image: by roxanne-desgagnes on unsplash

image: RedAndr, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons